PolymarketClickHouse Workshops

05 Investigate movement · Instructor

Keep the analysis evidence-based and explain empty windows.

Your computer
macOS terminal: Run workshop commands in Terminal using zsh or bash.

Timing

20 minutes.

Talk track

  • Probability is the latest quote midpoint with an explicit freshness timestamp.
  • A move is less persuasive when the spread is wide or the quote is stale.
  • Volume velocity compares adjacent five-minute windows; it is not a forecast.
  • Every statement is public-data analysis, not financial advice.

Common failures

  • Movers empty before minute five: expected; return after the other queries.
  • Fixture prices show regular patterns: label them fixture data.
  • A Yes/No pair does not sum to exactly 100: spreads and separate books explain the gap.

Reset

No state change. Re-run the queries after enough time has accumulated.

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